It was wishful thinking on the left, too. People were practically rubbing their thighs at the idea of Starmer being punished with a defeat to Reform. There was a strong moralising streak to the Reform mania, a kind of "see? This is what you get for <insert preferred transgression>!"

George Eaton

It’s long been clear that Reform is beatable – Farage’s terrible personal ratings, toxic brand, mass tactical voting against them. The narrative that victory for them is inevitable was based on superficial analysis + wishful thinking on the right.