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If the Iran's Trump War terms continue to get harsher at the current rate, by October Trump will be giving Tehran nukes. (Obviously, I'm exaggerating - but not enormously. The glaring omission in the terms leaked today is any reference to its nuclear programme)

Trump will probably have no problem with the first four. Hormuz transit fees can equate to reparations. But Israel will kick off about the final two and that'll be a major problem. Also, what does an end to threats mean in practice and how would it be verified/enforced? Screenshot taken from X.

Trump cannot understand two fundamental concepts Adam Smith settled 250 years ago: the free market, and the mutual benefits of trade. He can't because both rely on open, reliable information, fairness, and the rule of law. Both run counter to his concept of business as screwing the other side.

Trump is both scared and angered by the interest rates the market is charging the US. Leave aside his economic illiteracy on multiple levels here. His natural autocratic tendencies mean he simply can't understand how he can't impose lower rates. But he does fear the impact of higher rates.

It is quite bonkers that the spending for a single party primary in one (upper-medium but not huge*) state is not far off the entire party / candidates spend across all parties in the UK 2024 general election (which was about £93m). * Population about 10m, or about 15% that of the UK.

Yeah. I'm increasingly worried about this. The potential for mass crop failures across large parts of the world, on top of energy disruptions, could send food prices soaring to those who can afford it, and beyond accessibility for those who can't.

Debt levels, incompetent and corrupt governments, expensive wars, deep social divides, technological change - yes, all that. But the 1780s were also a pretty wacky decade climate-wise. Keep an eye on El Nino. This year's weather has already been extraordinary. It's likely to get worse.

I get that the media and many pundits like to make comparisons with the 1920s and 30s. Yes, plenty to go at there. But we can also learn from the run-up to, and aftermath of, other financial and political crises. Personally, I think a bit more focus on France in the 1780s would be beneficial.

Great work by Kent opposition councillors!

The El Nino event will have a political impact beyond the weather disasters, whether short-term floods and storms or longer-term droughts, and the response to them. It will hit some economies hard, which - in turn - will feed into discontent. As if we need more. But this is the new world.

This is not good. This year's El Nino global climate events is heading to be far more powerful than anything ever recorded, which has impacts for extreme weather the world over. Very bad for wildlife, very bad for people, very bad for agriculture.