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Will Stancil

You can build a politics around playing to concerns like these. But I don't think they're necessarily a PROGRESSIVE politics. And I don't think they're going to necessarily be an HONEST politics, responsive to the most severe problems in the country.

721111
Will Stancil

Again, THESE ARE DECENT PEOPLE AND DO NOT DUNK ON THEM. But I really want to say, these are functionally upper-middle class concerns! Most people do not make six figures (I earn far, far short of six figures myself). It's really hard to read this and think "Yes, the 1% have robbed us all blind."

Обсуждение

Ответы

Ashton Gilmore

This person doesn't seem to attribute it to 1%ers blame? Also, implicit in these posts is that upper-middle class people's concerns/issues are somehow not as worthy of commentary? Also, re 500k mortgage, the kicker is the down payment absent using a VA loan.

Ответ для Ashton Gilmore
Ashton Gilmore

500k at a 6.5% rate with a 50,000 down payment would be about $3,500/mo due to needing PMI. With 100k down, it'd be around $3,000/mo. I think that monthly payment is doable. But I think saving $100,000 with kids and a household income of $170k is not so easy.

Ответ для Ashton Gilmore
Ashton Gilmore

holy crap why did this post 6 times?

Ответ для Ashton Gilmore
Ryan

The median household income is $83k, which means that saving $100k with an income of $170k is as easy as living a lifestyle that is better than half the country for a little over a year. They aren't struggling.

Ответ для Ashton Gilmore
Johnny Bluesky

Upper-middle class people’s ECONOMIC concerns are absolutely not as worthy of commentary. What are we even doing here?

250 Years of BS

Do you think that a pretty well off couple needed to stretch to buy a regular house is not also a commentary on poorer folks being able to afford housing? Because those are the same concerns and same problems, just from different spots on the same plane.

Ответ для 250 Years of BS
Ryan

I suspect that it's not a regular house, especially when location is taken into account.

Pat Scaramuzza

You are correct that these are upper middle-class concerns. But you are wrong on the affordability. My family income is somewhat less than $170k, and we are just staying afloat in a $300k house. Utilities, property tax (Minneapolis suburbs) and other expenses just drain it all.

Ответ для Pat Scaramuzza
Johnny Bluesky

Cmon man. My household income is around $200k and we have a mortgage on a $700k house in Los Angeles. We have two cars, go on multiple vacations per year, contribute to savings, etc. If you’re struggling with that mortgage on that income there’s gotta be something else going on.

Ответ для Johnny Bluesky
Matt Irby

Funny, because my assumption from this interaction is that something is going on with you, ie an inherited nest egg or huge down payment from your folks, etc.

Ответ для Matt Irby
Johnny Bluesky

Yeah, no. None of that. We saved up and put 5% down with an FHA loan.

Ответ для Johnny Bluesky
Johnny Bluesky

Payment including property tax and insurance is ~$4200. That’s 25% of income going to housing, which is exactly what is recommended. $200k is a lot of money to make! You can afford things with that amount of money!

Ответ для Johnny Bluesky
Matt Irby

Mind you the difference in your income and his makes up more than half of your mortgage.

Ответ для Matt Irby
Johnny Bluesky

…his house is less than half the price of mine.

Ответ для Johnny Bluesky
Pat Scaramuzza

Hmn. Our mortgage is about 40% of income; family income is closer to $130k. The difference might be loan term. We got a 15 year loan because we wanted to own it ASAP for our children. When that loan is paid off we'll be sitting pretty but for now it's tight.

Julia Dunn

If you’re really happy with an economy where a 6 figure income -even low 6 figures -still has you checking your account balance before buying groceries, then i have to assume you love the taste of boot leather.

Ответ для Julia Dunn
Kierkegaarden Cop

If you’re making 6 figures & have to check your balance before buying groceries, you are living wildly beyond your means & need to recalibrate your expectations This is a $3000 on candles reply.

Ответ для Kierkegaarden Cop
Julia Dunn

I’m not the one who said that 170k income can “generally” afford the 500k starter homes that are standard on the market right now. I just don’t happen to think that an economy where buying a starter home is “wildly beyond your means” at $170k income is something we should be ok with.

Ответ для Julia Dunn
Eli Sennesh

A 2.9 price/income ratio is affordable, not wildly beyond anyone's means.

Ответ для Eli Sennesh
Julia Dunn

A mortgage payment on 400k (500k house minus 20% downpayment) is over 3500/month including taxes and insurance. That’s half of take home for low 6 figures.

Ответ для Julia Dunn
Steely Jeff

That hypothetical person is just really bad with money

Ответ для Julia Dunn
Eli Sennesh

Nobody I know who makes six figures has to deliberately budget their groceries. They budget trips to reservation-only steakhouses and fancy French restaurants.

RidgewayGirl

My mother's parents were deeply concerned about money all their lives. My parents saved for over a decade to have the down payment for a (very small) house. That's not a new concern, it's just that it's a concern that hits adults, that most kids never have to think about for a minute.

Matt Irby

Housing and higher education for your kids should not be problems for anyone at any socioeconomic level

Clark

Not the point but net college tuition peaked in 2012 and is down by like 40%. Two year college is free for most students. Huge progressive victories!

//John

I’m more sympathetic to anything related to the costs around kids. It seems to be a key area where we have failed.

Lisa who used to use her last name here but deleted it:)

Will, maybe you look at who owns/doesn't own stock in the USA and what the market has done over the past decade? Or maybe you've done that but you don't think people's sense of injustice is real economics?

Ответ для Lisa who used to use her last name here but deleted it:)
Abyssal Doomrock

Sense of injustice isn't real economics. One is feelings, the other is fact based.

Ответ для Abyssal Doomrock
Lisa who used to use her last name here but deleted it:)

Oh, I don't know that I agree with you. Consumer sentiment, for example, is often part of economics. How about futures trading? Short-selling? These are feelings, supported but not guaranteed by quantitative models most of the time, so, very gray area.

Will Stancil

A six-figure salary, or a household income of $170k, does not mean you can acquire anything you want. But it is generally sufficient to meet the vast majority of family needs in most places you can choose to live in America. It's also very substantially above average.

Ответ для Will Stancil
Rick McAlexander

If someone making 170k is having a hard time buying a house in the neighborhood they grew up in, pray tell what does that mean for people making far less?

Ответ для Rick McAlexander
Vick Russo

It means we should probably build a fuckton more housing. But also - what is this person's definition of "the boonies?" I just went on zillow and even 2 miles from downtown there's lots of homes that would be affordable on that income.

Ответ для Vick Russo
🥶

I genuinely think that a lot of this discourse on here comes from young people who feel like their lives would be over if they didn't live directly in the most happening places with all their other cool young friends at all times

Ответ для 🥶
quercus5

I like living in a cool place - I rent! I could afford a house in a less cool place. These are trade offs! Not being able to afford a sfh in an expensive, desirable urban location isn't a sign of the economy as a whole crumbling even if it is personally inconvenient.

Ответ для Vick Russo
C
Carly Rae Jeppson’s Malört

As someone that lives in that metro area, owns a home, and makes far less, this person could get a pretty great place at that income level.

Ответ для Vick Russo
mike_br

you can only build so many single family homes in an area and the market for people making 170k a year and also being ok with shared multi family housing is rather small

Ответ для Vick Russo
Nilo

They only want to live in the historically whitest parts of Chicago.

Ответ для Rick McAlexander
Kellum Dander

I understand the logic of wanting to buy a house in the neighborhood you grew up in but being unable to is usually a reflection of the change of value of neighborhoods when I sold my house it was no longer in the same kind of neighborhood that it was when I bought it

Ответ для Kellum Dander
Kellum Dander

when i bought the house it was considered a little far away from the center of town and in a previously high-crime area, but I correctly predicted that was changing after 25 years the value of the property went up 4x it was no longer a neighborhood of starter homes

Ответ для Will Stancil
Will Stancil

If you believe in redistribution, THESE ARE LIKELY THE PEOPLE WHOSE WEALTH WOULD BE REDISTRIBUTED. They're in or near the top 10%. So what does it mean when you center your politics around this sort of stuff?

Ответ для Will Stancil
Matt Vadnais

See, you’re right. But also the American Dream is often defined as your kids being able to do *better* than you. You’re coding his problems correctly but they also feel like failure because he can’t afford his father’s life. The American dream is a narrative of improvement. Not being ok.

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
Jordan

His "father's life" is all nostalgia though. If he actually went back in thought about it, he wouldn't want it. For example, that house? It was in fringe suburbia most likely. He can do that, but my guess is he wouldn't want to live there and commute.

Ответ для Jordan
Matt Vadnais

Oh of course! The dream is a narrative/construct etc. AND the dream made sense as a means of instilling one kind of capitalist ethic of consumption. It was always a scam. We *could* redefine the dream to all being ok- to ok+. But it’s incompatible with our ethic of consumption.

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
Bobby Cump, J.D. M.D. MBA, Esq.

There's so much wealth at the top in the US specifically that I think even if this person hypothetically would have their wealth diminished also, they would still largely benefit by virute of like, Elon Musk's wealth going toward schools or hospitals or public housing instead

Ответ для Bobby Cump, J.D. M.D. MBA, Esq.
Matt Vadnais

And they wouldn’t. Income maybe but wealth no. They’re in top 10 of earning but not wealth and we’re using the terms too loosely in this thread I think.

Ответ для Jordan
thepowerbroker

"The American Dream has been robbed from me because I, a person making over six figures, has to think about money sometimes, unlike my mega chilled-out, carefree Boomer dad".

Ответ для thepowerbroker
Matt Vadnais

This makes him sound stupid and maybe it is, but he feels like a failure because of it and it’s hard to be a good capitalist solider when one feels like a failure. Will set out to understand why this thinking is pervasive and we’re ignoring the obvious merging of value and worth.

Ответ для thepowerbroker
Matt Vadnais

I mean, he absolutely has reason to oppose wealth inequality and support a wealth tax and I think we’re pretending income and wealth are the same here to mock a guy doing silly things when I think his attitude is bought and paid for. It’s necessary to continue this version of America at all.

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
thepowerbroker

I'm not sure what this has to do with the post though - A person making double the median income are not going to be the beneficiary of any wealth tax distribution and under MOST forms that would resemble a European style social democracy they'd almost certainly be the benefactor

Ответ для thepowerbroker
Matt Vadnais

I think it’s relevant because it helps explain why he feels this way when it’s not “logical.” a fair number of people own almost nothing while making this much money. Which doesn’t make them poor. What does explain why they think they would be on the other side of we distribution solution

Ответ для thepowerbroker
Matt Vadnais

I think it’s also worth remembering that wealth redistribution is about the creation of public stuff as much as it is direct payments. This guy would still benefit from universal health care, robust medical research, and high speed rail.

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
thepowerbroker

1. UHC: I mean, maaaybe in a social sense and if they have a coverage/work gap - They probably *pay* more while working 2. We already had that 3. This seems basically tertiary - its true if they live in an area where they could benefit and if NIMBYism doesnt win out

Ответ для thepowerbroker
thepowerbroker

In general, if their issue is that they're getting squeezed and can't afford this or that that they feel they should be able to, the big wealth redistribution project isn't going to help them, if anything it goes the other way.

Ответ для Jordan
Kierkegaarden Cop

For a large part of my adolescence, my family had the choice between moving every couple years or my father having a travel schedule that meant he was only home on weekends for years. It sucked. But my mom’s dad had moved them all over every couple years, & that sucked, too.

Ответ для Jordan
POGtastic

Very specifically the anxiety that he feels around shelling out for Disney is one that was deliberately insulated from him (and his father was right to do so). I grew up in a house where my dad radiated anxiety over the money that went to luxuries! It was Not Great!

Ответ для Jordan
fortysixpercent

Yeah. Doesn’t he say he’d be “house-poor” if he bought his childhood home.

Ответ для fortysixpercent
Eli Sennesh

House-poor, a phrase specifically coined to point out its contradistinction from being actually poor.

Ответ для Jordan
RidgewayGirl

And probably a much, much smaller house than he'd be willing to live in today.

Ответ для Jordan
Matt Vadnais

I think part of the problem here is that the nostalgia isn’t being generated by him alone. This thread seems easily answered if one remembers people are paying a lot of money to shape this guy’s attitudes and discontent keeps people buying dumb things.

Ответ для Jordan
Kellum Dander

dad's house was also a 1500sf 3-br

Ответ для Kellum Dander
Matt Vadnais

Plenty of boomer houses were huge. Mostly in small towns or mid-sized places that people leave so point stands. But it was a very different world. Nostalgia has stuff to work with that isn’t lies even if it all gets gilded.

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
Jordan

I mean sure, there are always outliers, but the average home size in 1950 was 1,100 SF, it peaked at 2,500 SF in ~2010. It as 1,700 SF in the 80s. The vast majority of post-war homes were much smaller than the average home today.

Ответ для Jordan
Matt Vadnais

That’s information I didn’t know. My point got overstated. I just meant that all my friends had four or five bedrooms and I lived in a genuinely shit town but it was a small town with space. This thread had mainly been urban and suburban and I think money went further in the sticks.

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
Jordan

Point taken and yes, a lot of the affordability issue stem from a concentration of high paying jobs in certain metros. There's very affordable, old housing in old midwest towns.

Ответ для Jordan
Matt Vadnais

And it’s all screwed up by race in the northern cities I know. Milwaukee has lovely houses available for people not afraid of other people. And 2 br bullshit for 400k in hot neighborhoods.

Ответ для Jordan
Matt Vadnais

I wasn’t trying to be contrarian: he wouldn’t want my large, fairly nice childhood home at all because it’s in the aforementioned shit town on the North Dakota border.

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
Ash

It’s real easy to improve upon “my father was a poor immigrant”. But “my father was a high level executive earning six figures” is just HARD to beat. The American dream is dead for many simply because they’re too rich.

Ответ для Ash
Matt Vadnais

The thing is, it’s been a decade of living with the dumbest shit possible and half the country trying to kill us while gaslighting us. We’re all fucking depressed and a little daft. And the system is broken in a million ways. It’s super rational for him to feel this totally mockable thing.

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
Ash

I too am livid at the state of politics in my country. However, these people have lost a lot of perspective. I don’t make six figures but I am comfortable. While I’d like to earn more, I know I have it so much better than many of my fellow Americans and the vast majority of people around the world.

Ответ для Ash
Matt Vadnais

I think that can be true without this guy being crazy. I think very few of us are as in control of our thoughts as we’d like. He hasn’t lost perspective. He’s had one forced on him. Part of leftism is about freeing him from this. But that requires taking it seriously I think.

Ответ для Ash
Matt Vadnais

Like capitalism *is* making him feel this way in some ways

Ответ для Matt Vadnais
ineptitudinous

I'd throw in that, as a narrative construct, the "American Dream" is effectuated by a number of other narrative constructs: meritocracy, the rule of law, fair competition, equality of access, etc. I think none of those are faring too well in the public imagination at the moment.

Ответ для Will Stancil
David Shepherd

redistribution would revolve around net worth, not household income. Top 10% in net worth is around $1.6 million for all US households. This guy without a home would probably not have that and so they would not be involved in redistribution.

Ответ для David Shepherd
Matt

Depends on if you include retirement savings and at what point in life they are because a person hitting retirement could have that much and not feel particularly rich 

Ответ для Matt
Johnathan Taylor Goblikon

Yeah, I think would require a few considerations. On the opposite end of the spectrum, consider a 23-year-old who just started a high paying tech/finance gig, but with student loans his net worth is -$100k.

Ответ для Johnathan Taylor Goblikon
thene

This exact scenario is why student loans cannot be discharged via bankruptcy

Ответ для David Shepherd
NeonLiberal

Why would it only revolve around the top 10%? Succesful social democracies go much wider than that.

Ответ для Will Stancil
Jamie Rockwell

I think your math is off. Do you really think that "wealth redistribution" would hit the middle-class? Either way, it's all dancing around the concern is that the billionaires essentially bought our government so they could rig it and hoard more money. That's only going to get worse if this goes on

Ответ для Jamie Rockwell
dhpljm266

So, $200k/y is mid-80s percentile-wise, so lower than Will’s take but still well above average. Any societal embrace of redistribution is going to *at best* provide limited help to a $170k/y household

Ответ для Jamie Rockwell
Ryan

Some wealth distribution is horizontal. Universal healthcare transfers money from the healthy to the sick. Social Security transfers from the working to the retired. Education and child care transfers from those without children from those who do.

Ответ для Will Stancil
jeremiahbonjean

Will, no disrespect, but I think you could benefit from taking a broader view on this subject. There are lots of economic indicators that can support how things have gotten more/less expensive over time, but this is a good one to keep in mind. The middle class IS shrinking.

Ответ для jeremiahbonjean
jeremiahbonjean

For a country built on the dream of upward mobility that data point is a strong signal through the noise.

Ответ для jeremiahbonjean
jeremiahbonjean

You’ve been stuck on sentiment not aligning with the economy for a while. Maybe taking a step back from “you can budget it” response to the middle class and hearing the concern can help find the missing 🧩 for the perceived economy v. sentiment conundrum

Ответ для jeremiahbonjean
Will Stancil

Is the middle class shrinking?

Ответ для Will Stancil
Will Stancil

And if so, why?

Ответ для jeremiahbonjean
Kirsten Bladh

It true that it has shrunk, but that’s primarily because people moved into the upper class.

Ответ для Will Stancil
Captain America

Right, this is truly the rub.

Ответ для Will Stancil
marybpark

In other wealthy countries, a different tax structure makes some things cheaper for both these people *and* the poor you were posting about the cost of daycare the other day. How is daycare affordable in, say, Germany? Because it’s heavily subsidized as a public good. Same with tuition / healthcare

Ответ для marybpark
NeonLiberal

And we do that by taxing the shit out of people making 170K combined. To be clear I think that's a good thing.

Ответ для NeonLiberal
marybpark

Me too. And I personally would be happy to have the shit taxed out of me if it were going toward daycare and not, say, putting immigrants in camps and killing South American fishermen. I suspect I’m not the average American tho

Ответ для Will Stancil
Matt Irby

So, do you think people with under 6-figures can afford housing and college for their kids? Or are you saying they don’t want those things?

Ответ для Will Stancil
Cool Rick JD

Here's where you lose me. A couple that makes $170,000 a year can afford a comfortable existence, but I don't think that's "wealth." they're probably not saving more than a typical 401(k), so what wealth are you thinking you would read distribute from them?

Ответ для Will Stancil
JessicaBlack

To get near the BOTTOM of the top ten percent a household would need to make a quarter mil a year.. and that's just entry and doesn't even remotely begin to account for pre-existing circumstances like do they already own a car or a house etc.. You are too ignorant to comprehend this stuff.

Ответ для Will Stancil
🥶

It's funny that people say suburban/rural dwellers are entitled for not living directly in city centers, but then turn around and admit that they think the economy is broken because living a half hour away in the suburbs is an unacceptable way to live

Ответ для Will Stancil
rslott

You have lost your damn mind.

Ответ для Will Stancil
Ответ для Matthew Lewis -- living in the era of cults and consequences
mike_br

Condos are not something people want to live in forever

Ответ для mike_br
Ответ для Matthew Lewis -- living in the era of cults and consequences
Tony Jordan

Also, great news, no one lives forever!

Ответ для mike_br
Ответ для mike_br
alasdair

great news for you then! every condo that gets built relieves pressure on those single family houses you think is the only way to to live, making them more attainable for you!

Ответ для alasdair
alasdair

(also tbh I really like living in an attached home. paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to not share walls seems like an insanely bad deal to me)

Ответ для mike_br
OB Cycler

i would be pretty happy if i got to live in my condo forever

Ответ для mike_br
Tyler_The_Wise

Why not?

Ответ для Will Stancil
NParoubek the Earper who biked the arctic

I'm all for more housing, but typically 170k a yr usually estimated to afford 540k house(3xsalary)-and that's the estimate on old(when I was young) higher interest rates-feels like there's more his parents did to be frugal than he realizes 🤠

Ответ для Will Stancil
Matt

In their defense, a high income built off of an education that required massive student loans can make them effectively less well often than they seem 

Ответ для Matt
Udarnik 🇺🇦

And education costs for their children are increasing much faster than inflation. Tuition help drops off rapidly after $100K in income. This is used in the US as an anti-inflationary brake on the purchasing power of the middle class, but it is crippling Gen Z's financial independence.

Ответ для Udarnik 🇺🇦
Matt

I have one kid in college and another one soon to be so I’m painfully aware of the amount of tuition discounts available 

Ответ для Will Stancil
Dalassa

I think we are finally close to 170k combined and I consider us to be incredibly well off and lucky.

Ответ для Dalassa
Dalassa

(Finally because as a state employee I have lost ground against inflation across my career)

Ответ для Will Stancil
Bobby Cump, J.D. M.D. MBA, Esq.

Chicago is very affordable compared to other major cities too. On 170k this person can actually afford *the vast majority* of 2bed+ homes in Chicago:

Ответ для Will Stancil
Vituperative Erb

You could also could definitely afford a place in Chicago with that salary, the issue is they can’t afford a (single family?) home in the (expensive) neighborhood they prefer

Ответ для Will Stancil
Simon

Anyone who can’t live ANYWHERE on 170k is failing because they’re trying to keep up with people making twice that. That is the only reason

Ответ для Will Stancil
Kellum Dander

she says it right in the post: yes we can afford a house, just not the house we want in the place we want it to be also they have $40K annually in student loan payments which my rough math tells me is a ~$250K loan (!!) it might be possible this person is not good with money

Ответ для Kellum Dander
Tyler_The_Wise

It sounds like a married couple. Maybe grad school loans?

Ответ для Will Stancil
Tyler_The_Wise

Yeah, they’re just under 2X the median household income for that city They should be doing fine

Ryan

The core problem with the upper middle class is that they can't distinguish between prudent uses of their income and necessities. For example, it's not a necessity for their kid to be able to go to any university they want without needing scholarships or loans.

Ответ для Ryan
Ryan

It would be better for some of that money to expand access to high quality public universities so that everyone (including their children) can get an education without being burdened by student debt.